It's not the firewall. I even turned it off to test this, and nothing happened differently. I've even made sure all registry settings were gone, and reinstalled both the new and older versions that worked, and same thing, just sits there. Everything else connects just fine, so it's not my network.
EDIT: Uninstalled, rebooted, reinstalled...and now it works fine. See, this is the kind of thing that gives me the creeps. *shrug*